CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 14Z THU 25/03 - 06Z FRI 26/03 2004
ISSUED: 25/03 13:30Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the Baltic States ... W Russia ... E Ukraine.

General thunderstorms are forecast across the central Mediterranean.

SYNOPSIS

Extensive upper trough is anchored over Europe ... with several vort maxima rotating about its periphery ... leading to an elongated region of low geopotential stretching from Spain into the Ukraine/Russia by Friday 06Z ... with several imbedded upper cut-off lows. Strong SFC cyclone is accompanying the easternmost upper low ... and will slowly push NWD into the Belarus/Baltic States during the period. Main low-level baroclinic zone is extending from Gibraltar across S Italy into the Black Sea ... curving NWD into the low over the Belarus.

DISCUSSION

...Baltic States...
Strong low-level WAA is present over the Baltic States NE of the low center ... lightning data suggest that scattered elevated TSTMS fave formed amidst this WAA regime. Thermodynamic profiles across the warm-sector air reveal a rather stable stratification of this air mass ... and it is believed that current TSTMS are not driven by substantial amounts of CAPE. Given weak shear ... severe TSTM threat should be minimal. Activity may persist well into the night/early morning hours.

...E Ukraine ... W Russia
Farther upstream along the cold front ... several TSTMS have formed ahead of strong vort max. This activity will likely continue into the night as vort max raipdly lifts NWD. 60+ knots deep-layer shear may promote short-line segments and short-lived bow echoes ... with an attendant threat for severe straight-line winds. Weak thermodynamic fields should limit severe threat ... and a SLGT does not appear to be warranted ATTM.

...NW France ... Biscay...
Vort max now over the British Isles ... is promoting UVVs across NW France and the Biscay ... supporting enhanced convective mixing in the polar air mass present across this region. Expect some graupel and small hail with the stronger cells ... and maybe an isolated lightning strike or two. However ... TSTMS will likely remain too isolated to warrant a GEN TSTM outlook.

... S Mediterranean...
Plume of Saharan EML is progged to advect into the S-central Mediterranean Sea ... A few TSTMS have developed over Algeria ... and confidence exists that TSTM activity increases late in the period as WAA strengthens. TSTMS may congeal into one or more larger clusters and move into the Ionian Sea/W Greece early Friday morning. Though CAPE will likely be weak ... dry mid-levels and moderately strong shear may promote a few hail and wind events approaching severe levels.

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